Sunday, June 22, 2008

An Ambitious Project

Perusing the incredible Sim-Matchup feature on whatifsports.com, with which one can, among other things, have any two baseball teams since 1885 play each other in any park, I got the fairly absurd but exciting idea to have the tournament to end all tournaments; a single-elimination, best-of-seven series tournament of every single team since 1885. 2408 teams in all.

2,408 teams.

Seeding the teams was easy, if time-consuming. Though there are admittedly flaws to the method, especially that the greater competitive balance of more recent years skews the list and makes for some surprises (the 2006 Mets rank above the 1927 Yankees, for example), I've come up with a reasonably effective measure of a team's success within its league that works for creating the bracket. My next couple posts will be installments of this list, in which the teams are ranked by Z-score with respect to league winning percentage; I calculated the standard deviation of winning percentage in each league, and then measured how many standard deviations each team in that league was above or below the mean.

Tournament Format:

1. The tournament will begin with 360 play-in series (best-of-5). The winners will advance to the round of 2048.

2. Each team receives a seed between 1 and 38 (there are 64 of each seed except 38, of which there are 40...24 #27 seeds will not need to have a play-in game).

3. The round of 2048 will be broken up into 64 groups of 32, which will play until a final round of 64 is achieved. The championship best-of-seven series will be played with games 1-2 in one team's stadium, games 3-4 in the other's, and however many of games 5, 6, and 7 are necessary in stadiums voted on by anybody who follows the tournament.

4. The tournament will be considered to start on Sunday, June 1, 1980.

5. Best-of-5 series will play games 1-2 at the higher-seeded team's stadium, 3-4 at the lower, and 5 (if necessary) at the higher.

6. Best-of-7 series will play games 1-2 at the higher-seeded team's stadium, 3-4-5 at the lower, and 6-7 (if necessary) at the higher.

7. There will be a day off for travel between game 2 and game 3, and between game 4 and game 5, in a best-of-5 series, between game 2 and game 3 in a best-of-7 series, between game 5 and game 6 in a best-of-7 series, and after the last game 7 in the previous round before a new round begins. For example:

Boston plays at New York and Chicago plays at Milwaukee on Sunday and Monday in games 1 and 2 of a best-of-7 series. Tuesday is a day off, then New York plays at Boston and Milwaukee plays at Chicago in games 3, 4, and 5, on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Chicago eliminates Milwaukee in game 5. Saturday is a day off, then Boston returns to New York on Sunday and Monday for games 6 and 7. New York wins the series on Monday in seven games. If New York is playing Chicago in the next round, their series will begin at the stadium of the higher-seeded team on Wednesday, giving a day for travel. Chicago will have had four days to rest its pitchers.

8. Teams with four or more starting pitchers on the roster may have their pitchers pitch on three days' rest, but no fewer. 19th century teams with fewer than four pitchers on the roster may pitch their aces (and second starters, if need be) on two days of rest. In the event that a team has only two pitchers on the roster, they may pitch on one day of rest. In no circumstances may a pitcher start on no days of rest.

9. Pitcher rest may be impacted by pitch counts:

If a pitcher throws 130 pitches or more, he must wait to start on four days of rest for his next outing.
If a pitcher throws 120 pitches two outings in a row or 240+ pitches over two outings, he must wait to start on four days of rest for his third.
If a pitcher throws 110 pitches three outings in a row or 330+ pitches over three outings, he must wait to start on four days of rest for his fourth.
If a pitcher throws 100 pitches five outings in a row, he must wait to start on four days of rest for his sixth.
If a pitcher throws <119 pitches on four days' rest, it does not count in this table and he may return to three days rest. If he throws 120 or more, it does and he must continue to start on four days of rest if possible.
If a pitcher throws <129 pitches on his second start in a row on four days' rest, he may return to three days rest. If he throws 130 or more, he must continue to start on four days of rest.

10. Catchers cannot play more than 11 games over the course of two consecutive series.

11. Since the use of relief pitchers is controlled by the sim matchup, nothing can be done about closers pitching too much or too frequently.

Some discussion of the ranking system used will be posted later this evening; the play-in matches will begin either late tonight or tomorrow.

-Gavin (kamikazepig)

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